A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
